Motivating questions
Through the black-and-gold colored glasses of a Steelers fan, it seemed like offensive holding calls basically were not called in 2020 (I can’t watch as much of other games as I’d like).
I had been wondering how much a lack of holding calls may have negatively impacted the 2020 Steelers defense.
- How crippling is a holding call to a drive?
- Which teams have taken the most offensive holding penalties?
- Which teams have drawn the most offensive holding calls?
- Which teams draw the most holds while committing the fewest (i.e., drawn - taken = net holds drawn)?
Recently, Matt Williamson wondered aloud whether more holds occur on run or pass plays on an episode of SNR: The Drive.
Method
Using play-by-play data via nflfastR:
- Throw out punt and kickoffs
- Count all holds called, even if declined or offset by another penalty
- If not directly identified as a pass or run in the data set, infer whether the play call was a pass or run using keywords in the play description.
- Sacks were counted as “pass” play calls.
- Scrambles were also counted as play calls.
This is just amateur stuff for fun. I’m probably classifying some play calls incorrectly. I did a quick cross-check of total holding calls for 2021 against this website, and the results were tracking (it looks like the website includes special teams holds, whereas I threw them out).
Results for 2021, Through Week 16
Affect on series conversion rates
Ben Baldwin periodically post team series conversion rates, where a series is a success if it generates a new set of downs or scores a TD. Here’s a recent example.
- Typical series conversion rates for an offense are in the neighborhood of 70 percent.
- When an offense commits a holding penalty, the series conversion rate drops to
42.4percent in 2021.
Net offensive hold ranks
Offensive holds committed ranks
Defense offensive holding calls drawn ranks
Offensive holds by play call
Through Week 16, 46.6 percent of all Offensive Holds have occurred on run plays.
Conclusion
This was a quick, interesting exercise.
An offensive holding call really does hurt a drive as much as it seems.
In the future, it would be interesting to look at the topic in more detail. For example, more holds were called on run plays (~54 percent) than pass plays in 2020, the opposite of 2021. Is there a trend in officiating, change in play call mix, or just random variation?