The Latest Numbers
2024 Adjusted Net Yards Per Play
Random intercepts model, week 1 through 17.
cstm: Center of Spread and Total Margin
Using grid search to characterize ATS and total variation by NFL team.
Part IV: Win Probability as a Stochastic Process
Some Top-down Analysis of nflfastR vegas_wp Model.
Part III: Win Probability as a Stochastic Process
Simulating the trajectories.
Part II: Win Probability as a Stochastic Process
Toward a Dynamic: Some statistical properties of Win Probability Added.
Part I: Win Probability as a Stochastic Process
A novice's description of the Bachelier model for option pricing.
TAILS: Time Average Inpredictable Line Smidgen
A Time Average Adjustment to inpredictable Market-based Rankings
Buffet and Munger
A collection of quotes.
2022 NFL Regular Season Win Luck
Estimates of NFL Regular Season Record Luck
Analysis of Excess Movement in nflfastR's Win Probability Prediction Streams
Applying the Augenblick and Rabin (2020) Tests for Rational Bayesian Updating.
Empirical Bayes Estimates of NFL Offense and Defense Quality
Replacing averages with random intercepts from a basic multilevel model.
QB Quality and Time Average Evaluations
Incoprporating Mike Sando's QB Tiers with Time Averages to Predict Win/Loss Outcomes.
NFL Time Average Win Total Estimates: 2015 to 2021
Comparing season win totals to projections based on observed individual game time average lead.
2021 NFL Regular Season Win Luck
An estimate of record outperformance of underlying play based on game time average leads.
2021 NFL Regular Season Defensive Pass Game Penalties
Defensive pass game penalties drawn and committed by team.
2021 NFL Regular Season Offensive Holding
Offensive holding calls drawn and committed, by team and play type.
2021 NFL Regular Season Time Average Metrics
End of year time average metrics for the 2021 NFL regular season
NFL Net Offensive Holding Calls
A look at offensive holding calls by team and play type through Week 16.
Gaps in the Analytics Debate
A few non-curmudgeonly issues with the "pro analytics" camp.
Time Average Metrics for NFL Team Quality
An alternative to margin of victory that better reflects the path to the final result.